Tumour mutational burden is overestimated by target cancer gene panels

Hu Fang1,2, Johanna Bertl3, Xiaoqiang Zhu1

  • 1School of Biomedical Sciences, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.

Abstract

Insights

Cancer gene panels often overestimate tumour mutational burden (TMB), potentially misclassifying patients for immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI). A new statistical model corrects TMB discrepancies between whole exome and panel data, improving patient stratification for ICI therapy.

Area of Science:

  • Oncology
  • Genomics
  • Bioinformatics

Background:

  • Tumour mutational burden (TMB) is a key biomarker for predicting response to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI).
  • TMB calculation methods vary depending on whether whole exome or targeted panel sequencing data is used.
  • The uneven distribution of mutations across the cancer genome creates uncertainty in TMB interpretation from different genomic regions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate discrepancies in TMB calculations between whole exome sequencing and targeted gene panels.
  • To develop a generalized statistical model for harmonizing TMB values across different sequencing approaches.
  • To improve patient stratification for immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapy by correcting TMB values.

Main Methods:

  • Collected pan-cancer data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (10,179 samples) and ICI/non-ICI treatment outcomes from published studies (6,831 patients).
  • Calculated TMB as non-synonymous mutations normalized by genomic region size.
  • Employed Dirichlet method, linear regression, and Poisson calibration models to unify TMB from various gene panels.

Main Results:

  • Cancer gene panels tend to overestimate TMB compared to whole exome sequencing, potentially leading to misclassification for ICI treatment.
  • This overestimation is attributed to positive selection of mutations in cancer genes and is not fully resolved by removing mutational hotspots.
  • A generalized statistical model was developed to interconvert TMB values from whole exome and panel data, demonstrating improved performance in a lung cancer cohort treated with ICI.

Conclusions:

  • Cancer gene-based panels frequently overestimate TMB, impacting clinical decision-making for ICI therapy.
  • The developed generalized statistical model offers a method for unifying TMB calculations across different panels.
  • These findings are crucial for standardizing TMB assessment in clinical practice to ensure accurate patient stratification for immunotherapy.

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