Using ensemble learning and hierarchical strategy to predict the outcomes of ESWL for upper ureteral stone treatment

Urinary tract stones are a common and frequently recurring medical issue. Accurately predicting the success rate after surgery can help avoid ineffective medical procedures and reduce unnecessary healthcare costs. This study collected data from patients with upper ureter stones who underwent extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy, including cases of successful as well as unsuccessful stone removal after the first and second lithotripsy procedures, and constructed prediction systems for the outcomes of the first and second lithotripsy procedures. Features were extracted from three categories of information: patient characteristics, stone characteristics, and extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy machine data, and additional features were created using Feature Creation. Finally, the impact of features on the models was analyzed using six methods to calculate feature importance. Our prediction model for the first lithotripsy, selected from among 43 methods and seven ensemble learning techniques, achieves an AUC of 0.91. For the second lithotripsy, the AUC reaches 0.76. The results indicate that the detailed and binary information provided by patients regarding their history of stone experiences contributes differently to the predictive accuracy of the first and second lithotripsy procedures. The prediction tool is available at https://predictor.isu.edu.tw/ks.