Setting reasonable goals for kidney transplant referral among dialysis facilities

Determining whether a patient is eligible for kidney transplantation is complex. In this study, we estimate what proportion of patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) might have been suitable candidates for kidney transplantation but were not referred.

We identified 43,952 people initiating dialysis for kidney failure between 2012 and 2017 in the states of Georgia, North Carolina, or South Carolina from the United States Renal Data System and linked to the Early-Steps to Transplant Access Registry to obtain data on referral and waitlisting up until December 2020. We identified 'good transplant candidates' as those who were waitlisted within 2-years of referral, among all patients referred within 1-year of dialysis initiation. Using propensity score cut-offs, logistic regression, and area under the curve (AUC), we then estimated the proportion of individuals who may have been good transplant candidates, but were not referred.

Overall, 42.6% of incident dialysis patients were referred within one year and among them, 32.9% were waitlisted within 2 years of referral. Our model had reasonably good discrimination for identifying good transplant candidates with an AUC of 0.70 (95%CI 0.69-0.71), sensitivity of 0.68 and specificity of 0.61. Overall, 25% of individuals not referred for transplant may have been 'good' transplant candidates. Adding these patients to the existing 18,725 referred patients would increase the proportion of incident ESKD patients being referred within one year from 42.6% to 57.2% (a ~ 14.6% increase).

In this study, we show that a significant proportion of potentially good transplant candidates are not being referred for transplant. A ~ 14% increase in the proportion of patients being referred from dialysis facilities is both a meaningful and realistic goal and could lead to more qualified patients being referred and subsequently waitlisted for a lifesaving transplant.