Development and Validation of an Explainable Machine Learning Model for Identification of Hyper-Functioning...

To develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model based on high-frequency ultrasound (HFUS) images with the aim to identify the functional status of parathyroid glands (PTGs) in secondary hyper-parathyroidism (SHPT) patients.

This retrospective study enrolled 60 SHPT patients (27 female, 33 male; mean age: 51.2 years) with 184 PTGs detected from February 2016 to June 2022. All enrollments underwent single-photon emission computed tomography/computed tomography and contrast-enhanced ultrasound examinations. The PTGs were randomly divided into training (n = 147) and testing datasets (n = 37). Four effective ML classifiers were used and combined models incorporating multi-modal HFUS visual signs and radiomics features was constructed based on the optimal classifier. Model performance was compared in terms of discrimination, calibration and clinical utility. The Shapley additive explanation method was used to explain and visualize the main predictors of the optimal model.

This model, using a random forest classifier algorithm, outperformed other classifiers. Based on optimal classifier features, the model constructed from ultrasound visual and ML features achieved a favorable performance in the prediction of hyper-functioning PTGs. Compared with the traditional visual model, the ultrasound-based ML model achieved significant (p = 0.03) improvement (area under the curve: 0.859 vs. 0.629) and higher sensitivity (100.0% vs. 94.1%) and accuracy (86.5% vs. 67.6%). Among the predictors attributed to model development, large size and high echogenic heterogeneity of PTGs in ultrasonographic images were more often associated with high risk of hyper-functioning PTGs.

The ultrasound-based ML model for identifying hyper-functioning PTGs in SHPT patients showed good performance and interpretability using high-frequency ultrasonographic images, which may facilitate clinical management.