A Longitudinal Study of CogEvo's Prediction of Cognitive Decline in Older Adults

The predictive abilities of computer-based screening devices for early cognitive decline (CD) in older adults have rarely been longitudinally examined. Therefore, this study examined the ability of CogEvo, a short-duration, computer-based cognitive screening device requiring little professional involvement, to predict CD among community-dwelling older adults. We determined whether 119 individuals aged ≥ 65 years living in Japanese rural communities who scored ≥ 24 on the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) at baseline developed CD by annually administering the MMSE to them. CD was defined as an MMSE score of ≤23. At baseline, the overall CogEvo judgment grade, with lower grades indicating better cognitive function, was calculated from the results of various cognitive tasks. Over 2 years, 10 participants developed CD. Participants with grades of 4 had a higher percentage of CD cases than those with grades of ≤3 (p < 0.01). This relationship remained significant after controlling for possible confounders, including the MMSE score at baseline. The sensitivity and specificity of the CogEvo grade cutoff of 4 were 50.0% and 93.6%, respectively. In conclusion, CogEvo may be an efficient tool for identifying individuals at a high risk for dementia. The possibility of missing CD cases should be considered when using CogEvo for screening.