High-resolution surface temperature changes for Portugal under CMIP6 future climate scenarios

Area of Science:

• Climate Science
• Environmental Science
• Meteorology

Background:

• Understanding future climate change impacts is crucial for adaptation and mitigation strategies.
• High-resolution climate projections are essential for regional impact assessments.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate future temperature changes in continental Portugal using the latest climate scenarios.
• To project the frequency of extreme temperature events under different climate pathways.

Main Methods:

• Utilized high-resolution future climate projections from the IPCC AR6 CMIP6 scenarios.
• Analyzed projected changes in mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures.
• Assessed the projected frequency of hot days, very hot days, tropical nights, and frost days.

Main Results:

• Substantial increases in mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures are projected for all of continental Portugal, especially in south-central inland regions.
• Under SSP3-7.0, near-term warming is projected at 1-2°C. Long-term, SSP5-8.5 projects warming of 2.5-3.5°C.
• Increases in hot days (35-40 days/year), very hot days (12-15 days/year), and tropical nights (50 days/year) are expected, with a decrease in frost days in mountainous areas.

Conclusions:

• Continental Portugal is projected to experience significant surface temperature increases and a higher frequency of extreme temperature events.
• These changes pose severe risks to the population, environment, economy, and critical activities like agriculture.
• The findings underscore the need for proactive climate adaptation measures.