Evolution of RNA Viruses: Reasons for the Existence of Separate Plus, Minus, and Double-Strand Replication Strategies

Plus, minus, and double-strand RNA viruses are all found in nature. We use computational models to study the relative success of these strategies. We consider translation, replication, and virion assembly inside one cell, and transmission of virions between cells. For viruses which do not incorporate a polymerase in the capsid, transmission of only plus strands is the default strategy because virions containing minus strands are not infectious. Packaging only plus strands has a significant advantage if the number of RNA strands produced per cell is larger than the number of capsids. In this case, by not packaging minus strands, the virus produces more plus-strand virions. Therefore, plus-strand viruses are selected at low multiplicity of infection. However, at high multiplicity of infection, it is preferable to package both strands because the additional minus virions produced are helpful when there are multiple infections per cell. The fact that plus-strand viruses are widespread while viruses that package both strands are not seen in nature suggests that RNA strands are indeed produced in excess over capsids, and that the multiplicity of infection is not sufficiently high to favor the production of both kinds of virions. For double-strand viruses, we show that it is advantageous to produce only plus strands from the double strand within the cell, as is observed in real viruses. The reason for the success of minus-strand viruses is more puzzling initially. For viruses that incorporate a polymerase in the virion, minus virions are infectious. However, this is not sufficient to explain the success of minus-strand viruses, because in this case, viruses that package both strands outcompete those that package only minus or only plus. Real minus-strand viruses make use of replicable strands that are coated by a nucleoprotein, and separate translatable plus strands that are uncoated. Here we show that when there are distinct replicable and translatable strands, minus-strand viruses are selected.