Quantification and forecast of GHG emissions from municipal solid wastes by multi-expression programming method

Yuan-Yuan Luo ¹, Yi-Xin Yang ¹, Sheng Zhou ¹

⁰Institute of Geotechnical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.

Waste Management (New York, N.Y.) +

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July 27, 2024

View abstract on PubMed

Summary

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) in China were analyzed from 2004-2021. Landfilling and incineration trends and influencing factors were identified, with future emission forecasts provided.

Area Of Science

Environmental Science
Climate Change Studies
Waste Management Research

Background

Municipal solid waste (MSW) management is a significant contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Understanding MSW GHG emission patterns is crucial for developing effective carbon mitigation strategies.

Purpose Of The Study

To calculate and analyze GHG emissions from MSW landfilling and incineration in Chinese provinces from 2004 to 2021.
To identify key socioeconomic factors influencing these emissions.
To forecast future GHG emissions from MSW using a developed explicit model.

Main Methods

Calculated GHG emissions based on IPCC Models for landfilling and incineration.
Employed a panel regression model to determine factors influencing emissions (GDP, population, PCCE).
Utilized multi-expression programming to create a predictive model for future GHG emissions.

Main Results

Landfilling generated approximately 1271 MtCO2-eq, while incineration produced 198 MtCO2-eq from 2004-2021.
Landfilling emissions rose until 2020, then declined; incineration emissions showed a consistent increasing trend.
GDP and population positively correlated with landfill emissions; GDP and PCCE positively correlated with incineration emissions.

Conclusions

Projected rapid decrease in landfill emissions and rapid increase in incineration emissions from 2022-2024.
Anticipated a slowdown in incineration emission rates and a slow decrease in landfill emissions thereafter.
Findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and the waste management sector for informed decision-making.