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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Apr 9, 2026

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Quantification and forecast of GHG emissions from municipal solid wastes by multi-expression programming method.

Yuan-Yuan Luo1, Yi-Xin Yang1, Sheng Zhou1

  • 1Institute of Geotechnical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.

Waste Management (New York, N.Y.)
|July 27, 2024
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Summary

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) in China were analyzed from 2004-2021. Landfilling and incineration trends and influencing factors were identified, with future emission forecasts provided.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Climate Change Studies
  • Waste Management Research

Background:

  • Municipal solid waste (MSW) management is a significant contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
  • Understanding MSW GHG emission patterns is crucial for developing effective carbon mitigation strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To calculate and analyze GHG emissions from MSW landfilling and incineration in Chinese provinces from 2004 to 2021.
  • To identify key socioeconomic factors influencing these emissions.
  • To forecast future GHG emissions from MSW using a developed explicit model.

Main Methods:

  • Calculated GHG emissions based on IPCC Models for landfilling and incineration.
  • Employed a panel regression model to determine factors influencing emissions (GDP, population, PCCE).
  • Utilized multi-expression programming to create a predictive model for future GHG emissions.

Main Results:

  • Landfilling generated approximately 1271 MtCO2-eq, while incineration produced 198 MtCO2-eq from 2004-2021.
  • Landfilling emissions rose until 2020, then declined; incineration emissions showed a consistent increasing trend.
  • GDP and population positively correlated with landfill emissions; GDP and PCCE positively correlated with incineration emissions.

Conclusions:

  • Projected rapid decrease in landfill emissions and rapid increase in incineration emissions from 2022-2024.
  • Anticipated a slowdown in incineration emission rates and a slow decrease in landfill emissions thereafter.
  • Findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and the waste management sector for informed decision-making.