Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jun 18, 2025
Quantification and Whole Genome Characterization of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in Wastewater and Air Samples
Published on: June 30, 2023
Wastewater-based surveillance of SARS-CoV-2: Short-term projection (forecasting), smoothing and outlier
Douglas G Manuel1, Gauri Saran2, Ivan Lee2
1The Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, 1053 Carling Ave, Ottawa, Ontario K1Y 4E9, Canada; University of Ottawa, Ottawa, 75 Laurier Ave E, ON K1N 6N5, Canada.
Background:
Day-to-day variation in the measurement of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater can challenge public health interpretation. We assessed a Bayesian smoothing and forecasting method previously used for surveillance and short-term projection of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
Methods:
SARS-CoV-2 viral measurement from the sewershed in Ottawa, Canada, sampled at the municipal wastewater treatment plant from July 1, 2020, to February 15, 2022, was used to assess and internally validate measurement averaging and prediction. External validation was performed using viral measurement data from influent wastewater samples from 15 wastewater treatment plants and municipalities across Ontario.
Results:
Plots of SARS-CoV-2 viral measurement over time using Bayesian smoothing visually represented distinct COVID-19 "waves" described by case and hospitalization data in both initial (Ottawa) and external validation in 15 Ontario communities. The time-varying growth rate of viral measurement in wastewater samples approximated the growth rate observed for cases and hospitalization. One-week predicted viral measurement approximated the observed viral measurement throughout the assessment period from December 23, 2020, to August 8, 2022. An uncalibrated model showed underprediction during rapid increases in viral measurement (positive growth) and overprediction during rapid decreases. After recalibration, the model showed a close approximation between observed and predicted estimates.
Conclusion:
Bayesian smoothing of wastewater surveillance data of SARS-CoV-2 allows for accurate estimates of COVID-19 growth rates and one- and two-week forecasting of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater for 16 municipalities in Ontario, Canada. Further assessment is warranted in other communities representing different sewersheds and environmental conditions.
