Delphi method applicability in drug foresight

Area of Science:

• Drug policy and public health research.
• Foresight studies and trend analysis in substance use.

Background:

• Expert predictions on drug-related topics in Finland were made between 2009-2011.
• The study assesses the accuracy of these foresight predictions for the year 2020.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the accuracy of expert foresight predictions regarding drug use and drug policy in Finland.
• To determine the reliability of long-term (10-year) drug-related trend forecasting.

Main Methods:

• Utilized multiple data sources including statistics, surveys, official registers, and wastewater analyses.
• Compared expert predictions from a 2009-2011 Delphi study with 2020 data.

Main Results:

• Experts accurately predicted increased drug use and wider societal approval, though the latter was slow.
• The rise in buprenorphine misuse was noted, while new synthetic drug use did not markedly increase.
• Drug prices remained stable; legislation saw no changes, but enforcement became more lenient, aligning with expert foresight.

Conclusions:

• Forecasting existing trends (e.g., increased drug use) is more reliable than predicting shifts in specific drug popularity (e.g., NPS).
• Foresight studies can provide accurate views of drug-related issues up to a decade in advance.
• Expert disagreement highlights future uncertainties; organized crime's role in drug trade was predicted but not preventable.