Machine learning progressive CKD risk prediction model is associated with CKD-mineral bone disorder

Recently, we developed the machine learning (ML)-based Progressive CKD Risk Classifier (PCRC), which accurately predicts CKD progression within 5 years. While its performance is robust, it is unknown whether PCRC categorization is associated with CKD-mineral bone disorder (CKD-MBD), a critical, yet under-recognized, downstream consequence. Therefore, we aimed to 1) survey real-world testing utilization data for CKD-MBD and 2) evaluate ML-based PCRC categorization with CKD-MBD.

The cohort study utilized deidentified data from a US laboratory outpatient network, composed of 330,238 outpatients, over 5 years. The main outcomes were: 1) Laboratory testing utilization of eGFR, urine albumin creatinine ratio (UACR), parathyroid hormone (PTH), calcium, phosphate; and 2) PCRC categorization and biochemical abnormalities associated with CKD-MBD over 5 years.

We identified significant under-utilization of laboratory testing for UACR, phosphate and PTH, which ranged from -40 % to -100 % against the minimum standard-of-care. At five years, the CKD progression group, as predicted by the PCRC, was associated with 15.5 % increase in phosphate (P value <<0.01) and 94.9 % increase in PTH (P value <<0.01), consistent with CKD-MBD.

We identified significant under-utilization of laboratory testing for CKD-MBD. Moreover, we demonstrated that CKD progression, as predicted by the PCRC, is associated with CKD-MBD, several years in advance of disease. To our knowledge, this investigation is the first to examine the role of predictive analytics for CKD progression on mineral bone disorder. While further studies are required, these findings have the potential to advance AI/ML-based risk stratification and treatment of CKD and CKD-MBD.