Prediction Model of Spontaneous Combustion of Lignite in Zhalainuoer Mining Area

A programmed temperature-increase experiment was conducted on coal samples from four coal mines in the Zhalainuoer mining area to improve the accuracy of predicting and forecasting lignite spontaneous combustion. The gases produced during the coal tests were analyzed, and logistic, exponential, Boltzmann, and fourth-degree polynomial functions were selected to develop predictive models for the gas data. Additionally, the Boltzmann function was used to predict the occurrence of fire. The results revealed that the initial appearance temperature of CO was approximately 50 °C, and it exhibited an exponential growth trend with increasing temperature. The initial appearance temperature of C₂H₄ was approximately 140 °C, which could serve as an indicator of coal entering the accelerated oxidation stage. Applying the selection principle to gas indicators, CO and C₂H₄ were identified as single gas indicators for lignite spontaneous combustion in the Zhalainuoer mining area, whereas CO/CO₂ and C₂H₄/C₂H₆ were identified as composite gas indicators. Among the four functions, the Boltzmann function model exhibited the best fitting effect for CO and CO/CO₂ within the temperature range of 0-200 °C. The values of the four parameters (A ₁, A ₂, dx, and x ₀) were determined based on their statistical characteristics, and a functional equation describing the relationship between gas concentration and coal temperature was derived. This indicates that the Boltzmann function model can be effectively used to predict the spontaneous combustion of lignite in the Zhalainuoer mining area.