Predicting Sprint Performance From the Vertical and Horizontal Jumps in National Football League Combine Athletes

Agar-Newman, DJ, MacRae, F, Tsai, M-C, and Klimstra, M. Predicting sprint performance from the vertical and horizontal jumps in National Football League Combine athletes. J Strength Cond Res 38(8): 1433-1439, 2024-Identifying fast athletes is an important part of the National Football League (NFL) Combine. However, not all athletes partake in the 36.58-m sprint, and relying on this single test may miss potentially fast athletes. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine whether sprinting times can be predicted using simple anthropometric and jumping measures. Data from the NFL Combine between the years 1999-2020 inclusive were used (n = 4,149). Subjects had a mean (±SD) height = 1.87 ± 0.07 m and body mass = 111.96 ± 20.78 kg. The cross-validation technique was used, partitioning the data into a training set (n = 2,071) to develop regression models to predict time over the 9.14-, 9.14- to 18.29-, 18.29- to 36.58-m, and 36.58-m segments using vertical jump, broad jump, height, and mass as the independent variables. The models were then evaluated against a test set (n = 2,070) for agreement. Statistically significant (p < 0.01) models were determined for 9.14-m time (adjusted R2 = 0.76, SEE = 0.05 seconds), 9.14- to 18.29-m time (adjusted R2 = 0.74, SEE = 0.04 seconds), 18.29- to 36.59-m time (adjusted R2 = 0.79, SEE = 0.07 seconds), and 36.58-m time (adjusted R2 = 0.84, SEE = 0.12 seconds). When evaluated against the test set, the models showed biases of -0.05, -0.04, -0.02, and -0.02 seconds and root-mean-square error of 0.07, 0.05, 0.07, and 0.12 seconds for the 9.14-, 9.14- to 18.29-, 18.29- to 36.58-m, and 36.58-m segments, respectively. However, 5-6% of the predictions lay outside of the limits of agreement. This study provides 4 formulae that can be used to predict sprint performance when the 36.58-m sprint test is not performed, and practitioners can use these equations to determine training areas of opportunity when working with athletes preparing for the NFL Combine.