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A memory-theoretic account of citation propagation
Michael R Dougherty1, David A Illingworth2, Rosalind Nguyen1
1Department of Psychology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA.
Royal Society Open Science
|July 30, 2024
Summary
Citation counts may not reflect scientific quality. A memory retrieval model explains how early exposure, not quality, drives citation patterns, leading to highly cited papers even on a level playing field.
Area of Science:
- Bibliometrics
- Cognitive Science
- Scientific Communication
Background:
- Citations are commonly assumed to indicate scientific merit.
- However, evidence suggests citation counts are influenced by factors unrelated to article quality.
Purpose of the Study:
- To propose and validate a memory retrieval model for citation patterns.
- To demonstrate how early exposure dynamics can lead to highly cited papers.
Main Methods:
- Modeling citation decisions as memory retrieval processes.
- Analyzing citation patterns using an exposure-based memory model.
Main Results:
- The proposed memory model accurately accounts for observed citation patterns.
- Early-stage exposure variations, even minor ones, are magnified over time, creating highly cited papers.
- Article retrievability, influenced by encoding, further exacerbates these citation disparities.
Conclusions:
- Citation counts are significantly influenced by memory retrieval and exposure dynamics, not solely by scientific quality.
- The findings have critical implications for research evaluation, hiring, and promotion decisions.
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