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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jun 18, 2025

Author Spotlight: Validation of SICOLE-R for Assessing Cognitive and Reading Skills in Spanish-Speaking Children and Its Role in Personalized Education
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Intellectual Ability and Sexual Recidivism Risk Assessment: Comparing Predictive Accuracy in an Incarcerated U.S.

Perry A Callahan1, Elizabeth L Jeglic2, Cynthia Calkins2

  • 1Fordham University, New York, NY, USA.

Sexual Abuse : a Journal of Research and Treatment
|July 30, 2024
PubMed
Summary

Risk assessment tools for incarcerated individuals with intellectual disabilities (ID) and borderline intellectual functioning (BIF) are lacking. The MnSOST-R showed predictive validity for this group, unlike Static-99/Static-99R, highlighting a need for tailored risk assessment strategies.

Keywords:
intellectual disabilityrecidivismrisk assessmentsexual offending

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Area of Science:

  • Forensic Psychology
  • Intellectual Disability Research
  • Criminal Justice

Background:

  • Individuals with intellectual disabilities (ID) and borderline intellectual functioning (BIF) are disproportionately represented in incarcerated sexual offense populations.
  • A significant research gap exists regarding effective risk assessment tools for this demographic, particularly within U.S. correctional settings.
  • Inaccurate risk assessments can lead to adverse outcomes such as denial of bail, harsher sentencing, or civil confinement.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the predictive validity of the Static-99, Static-99R, and MnSOST-R risk assessment instruments for incarcerated individuals with and without ID/BIF.
  • To address the paucity of research on risk assessment for incarcerated individuals with ID/BIF in the U.S.

Main Methods:

  • Archival records were analyzed for 459 incarcerated individuals with ID/BIF and 459 matched controls without ID/BIF.
  • Participants were released from New Jersey state prisons between 1996 and 2007, with an average follow-up of 5.7 years.
  • The predictive accuracy of Static-99, Static-99R (historical predictors), and MnSOST-R (including a dynamic subscale) was compared.

Main Results:

  • Static-99 and Static-99R demonstrated good predictive validity for individuals without ID/BIF.
  • Only the MnSOST-R yielded a significant Area Under the Curve (AUC) value for the ID/BIF group, indicating better predictive accuracy.
  • Reincarceration rates for the ID/BIF group categorized as high-risk were low (0%-8%), comparable to the overall recidivism base rate (4%).

Conclusions:

  • Current risk assessment tools may not be optimally effective for incarcerated individuals with ID/BIF.
  • The MnSOST-R shows promise for assessing risk in this population, but further research is warranted.
  • Additional investigation is needed to identify and validate specific risk factors relevant to recidivism among individuals with ID/BIF.