A risk assessment framework utilizing bivariate copula for contaminate monitoring in groundwater

Regular groundwater quality monitoring in resource-constrained regions present formidable challenges in terms of funding, testing facilities and manpower; necessitating the development of easily implementable monitoring techniques. This study proposes a copula-based risk assessment model utilizing easily measurable indicators (e.g., turbidity, alkalinity, pH, total dissolved solids (TDS), conductivity), to monitor the contaminates in groundwater which are otherwise difficult to measure (i.e., iron, nitrate, sulfate, fluoride, etc.). Preliminary correlation between the indicators and the target contaminates were identified using Pearson coefficient. Best representative univariate distributions for these pairs were selected using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), which were used in the formulation of the copula model. Validation against observed data showcased the model's high accuracy, supported by consistent Kendall Tau correlation coefficients. Through this model, conditional probabilities of the contaminants not exceeding the permissible limits set by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) were calculated using indicator concentration. Notably, an inverse correlation between iron concentration and conductivity was noted, with the likelihood of iron exceeding BIS limits decreasing from 90 to 50% as conductivity rose from 500 to 2000 micromhos/cm. TDS emerged as a pivotal indicator for nitrate and sulfate concentrations, with the probability of sulfate surpassing 10 mg/l decreasing from 75 to 25% as TDS increased from 250 to 750 mg/l. Likewise, the probability of nitrate exceeding 1 mg/l decreased from 90 to 60% with TDS levels reaching 1500 mg/l. Furthermore, a 63% probability of fluoride concentrations remaining below 1 mg/l was observed at turbidity levels of 0-10 NTU. These findings hold significant implications for policymakers and researchers since the model can provide crucial insights into the risks associated with the contaminates exceeding the permissible limit, facilitating the development of an efficient monitoring and management strategies to ensure safe drinking water access for vulnerable populations.