Temporal Pattern and Spatial Distribution of Tuberculosis Prevalence Associated with Multimorbidity in Brazil

Four main chronic conditions may be involved in the tuberculosis pathogenic process and/or clinical evolution: HIV/AIDS, diabetes mellitus, mental illness, and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease. This study aimed to determine the spatiotemporal pattern of tuberculosis (TB) associated with multimorbidity in Brazil.

Ecological study use data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN), collected from the electronic portal of the Department of Informatics of the SUS (DATASUS). These data included TB cases that were reported between 2007 and 2021 and were associated with two or more chronic clinical health conditions (multimorbidity).

A total of 7,795 cases of TB associated with multimorbidity were recorded, with an average growth trend of 4.6% per year (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3.3-5.9; p<0.001) and higher growth in the first temporal segment (2007 to 2011) (8.9%; 95%CI: 4.2-13.9; p=0.002). The spatial analysis, after Bayesian smoothing, highlighted the main municipalities states of the study, namely: São Paulo (19.8%; n = 297), Porto Alegre (23.6%; n = 354), and Rio de Janeiro (44.8%; n = 672). The proportion of extremely poor (β=-0.002), the bolsa família program (β=0.002), the average per-person income (β=0.001), and the percentage of the population living in households with a density of more than 2 people per bedroom (β=0.001) were related to chronic health conditions.

These findings will stimulate public action to manage this situation. However, as this is still a recent topic in the literature, we encourage the development of studies on the synergistic characteristics of TB and other clinical conditions.