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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jun 18, 2025

Protocol for Assessing the Relative Effects of Environment and Genetics on Antler and Body Growth for a Long-lived Cervid
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State Policies Regulating Firearms and Changes in Firearm Mortality.

Terry L Schell1, Rosanna Smart1, Matthew Cefalu1

  • 1RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California.

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PubMed
Summary

State firearm policies have uncertain effects on mortality. Restrictive policies combined show significant reductions in firearm deaths, while individual policies have small, uncertain impacts.

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Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Epidemiology
  • Health Policy

Background:

  • Firearm violence poses significant social and public health challenges in the U.S.
  • The precise impact of various firearm policies on reducing firearm mortality remains unclear.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify the individual and combined effects of state-level firearm policies on firearm-related mortality rates.
  • To provide evidence-based insights for policymakers addressing firearm violence.

Main Methods:

  • Comparative effectiveness study utilizing Bayesian methods to analyze panel data.
  • Examined annual, state-level mortality rates from 1979-2019 for all U.S. firearm decedents.
  • Assessed six classes of firearm policies: background checks, minimum age, waiting periods, child access, concealed carry, and stand-your-ground laws.

Main Results:

  • Individual policies showed small effect sizes with considerable uncertainty; child-access prevention laws had the highest probability of reducing firearm deaths (6% reduction).
  • Stand-your-ground laws were associated with an increased risk of firearm homicides (6% increase).
  • Implementing multiple restrictive firearm policies demonstrated larger effect sizes, with a shift to the most restrictive set associated with an estimated 20% reduction in firearm deaths.

Conclusions:

  • Combinations of firearm laws, particularly restrictive policies, are linked to substantial reductions in firearm mortality.
  • While individual policy effects are often small and uncertain, understanding joint effects is crucial for effective firearm violence prevention.
  • Policy analysis indicates that comprehensive, restrictive firearm legislation offers the greatest potential for reducing firearm deaths.