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Random forest model used to predict the medical out-of-pocket costs of hypertensive patients

Narimasa Kumagai1, Mihajlo Jakovljević2,3,4

  • 1Faculty of Economics, Seinan Gakuin University, Fukuoka, Japan.

Frontiers in Public Health
|August 1, 2024
PubMed

Insights

Predicting out-of-pocket costs for hypertension patients is key for health policy. Regular exercise can help reduce costs for those without daily living difficulties, but habitual exercise is not advised for those with such challenges.

Area of Science:

  • Health Economics
  • Public Health Policy
  • Cardiovascular Disease Management

Background:

  • Controlling medical expenses for hypertension is crucial for national health insurance systems.
  • Hypertension is a leading cause of stroke and ischemic heart disease globally.
  • Understanding out-of-pocket (OOP) costs is vital for effective health policy design.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To explore the significance of OOP costs for outpatients with hypertension.
  • To precisely predict the highest quartile of OOP costs among hypertensive outpatients.
  • To identify key factors influencing OOP expenditure in this patient group.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized nationwide longitudinal data for analysis.
  • Employed a random forest (RF) model to predict OOP costs.
  • Focused on lifestyle-related disease complications and data nonlinearities.

Main Results:

  • RF model prediction accuracy was slightly better for hypertensive patients without activities of daily living (ADL) difficulties.
  • Key predictors for the highest OOP cost quartile included age, diabetes/lipidemia, and exercise habits.
  • Lack of habitual exercise and engagement in moderate/vigorous regular exercise were significant factors.

Conclusions:

  • Preventing complications like diabetes or lipidemia is essential for reducing OOP costs in hypertensive outpatients.
  • Moderate to vigorous regular exercise is recommended for hypertensive patients without ADL difficulties.
  • Habitual exercise is not recommended for hypertensive patients with ADL difficulties.
Abstract

Keywords:
Japanactivities of daily living (ADL)exercisehypertensionout-of-pocket (OOP) costspredictionrandom forest

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