DN-ODE: Data-driven neural-ODE modeling for breast cancer tumor dynamics and progression-free survivals

Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modeling is crucial in the development of new drugs. However, traditional population-based PK/PD models encounter challenges when modeling for individual patients. We aim to explore the potential of constructing a pharmacodynamic model for individual breast cancer pharmacodynamics leveraging only limited data from early clinical trial phases. While previous studies on Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) suggest promising results in clinical trial practices, they primarily focused on theoretical applications or independent PK/PD modeling. PD modeling from complex and irregular clinical trial data, especially when interacting with PK parameters, is still unclear. To achieve that, we introduce a Data-driven Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (DN-ODE) modeling for breast cancer tumor dynamics and progression-free survival data. To validate this approach, experiments are conducted with early-phase clinical trial data from the Amcenestrant (an oral treatment for breast cancer) dataset (AMEERA 1-2), aiming to predict pharmacodynamics in the later phase (AMEERA 3). DN-ODE model achieves RMSE scores of 8.78 and 0.21 in tumor size and progression-free survival, respectively, with R² scores over 0.9 for each task. Compared to PK/PD methodologies, DN-ODE is able to predict robust individual tumor dynamics with only limited cycle data. We also introduce Principal Component Analysis visualizations for encoder results, demonstrating the DN-ODE's capability to discern individual distributions and diverse tumor growth patterns. Therefore, DN-ODE facilitates comprehensive drug efficacy assessments, pinpoints potential responders, and aids in trial design.