Clinical characteristics and risk factors for lupus flares in sub-Saharan Africa-retrospective cross-sectional study

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is an autoimmune disease with a variable course with unpredictable flares. Identifying predictors of these flares is essential for monitoring and timely hospital care. To characterize the prevalence of flares within the first five years of SLE diagnosis and determine the clinical and immunological characteristics associated with flare development among patients attending the Rheumatology Clinic at Tikur Anbesa Specialized Hospital (TASH) and Lancet General Hospital. A multicenter, cross-sectional study was conducted from May 2023 to November 2023 at TASH and Lancet General Hospital. The data was collected from electronic medical records and analyzed using SPSS version 26. Logistic regressions were used to determine factors associated with lupus flare. Most patients with SLE were female (95.4%). The most common clinical presentations were musculoskeletal (71.8%), cutaneous (55%), and constitutional (22%). Almost half (44.3%) of the patients had comorbidity illness. Positive ANA test was found in 96.5% of the patients, whereas only 55% had positive anti-dsDNA test. The prevalence of SLE flare in the first five years of SLE diagnosis was 38.9%, and most flares occurred within the first year of diagnosis. Patients with the following characteristics were more likely to have flare-ups: younger age at diagnosis (less than 25 years old), initial presentation with vasculitis, renal flare, and being on low-dose prednisolone. The most common clinical presentations were musculoskeletal, dermatologic, and constitutional manifestations. Age < 25 years at diagnosis, initial clinical presentation with renal manifestation, and being on low-dose prednisolone were predictors of SLE flare. Key Points • This study found a significant gender disparity, with 95% female. • Nearly 39% of patients experienced an SLE flare within the first five years of diagnosis. • Over three-quarters (77%) of flares occurred within the first year of diagnosis. • Age less than 25 years, initial presentation with vasculitis, renal involvement, and being on low-dose prednisolone were identified as predictors of flares.