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Published on: June 13, 2020
Enhanced Atlantic Meridional Mode predictability in a high-resolution prediction system.
Qiuying Zhang1, Ping Chang1,2, Dan Fu1
1Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA.
Improved climate models enhance multiyear sea surface temperature (SST) predictions in the tropical North Atlantic. This boosts tropical cyclone forecasting by better simulating the Atlantic Meridional Mode and wind-evaporation-SST feedback.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Oceanography
- Meteorology
Background:
- Accurate multiyear sea surface temperature (SST) prediction in the tropical North Atlantic is crucial for understanding tropical cyclone activity.
- Recent high-resolution climate models show improved skill in predicting multiyear SSTs.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify the reasons behind enhanced high-resolution prediction of tropical North Atlantic SSTs.
- To investigate the role of the Atlantic Meridional Mode and associated feedbacks in SST prediction.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of high-resolution climate prediction model outputs.
- Investigating the representation of the Atlantic Meridional Mode and wind-evaporation-SST feedback.
- Examining the impact of increased atmospheric model resolution on Intertropical Convergence Zone biases and surface wind responses.
Main Results:
- Higher atmospheric model resolution reduces Intertropical Convergence Zone bias.
- This leads to an enhanced surface wind response to cross-equatorial SST gradients.
- The improved wind response amplifies the positive feedback between heat fluxes and SST anomalies, enhancing prediction skill.
Conclusions:
- Advances in high-resolution climate prediction significantly improve multiyear SST forecasts in the tropical North Atlantic.
- These improvements are linked to a more realistic simulation of key ocean-atmosphere interactions.
- Enhanced SST prediction capabilities offer potential for extending the lead time of tropical cyclone forecasts.
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