Trends in atmospheric water vapour over the Thar Desert during Indian Summer Monsoon period of 2003-2020

The Thar is the most densely populated desert in the world, which supports diverse ecosystems and human endeavours such as agriculture and socioeconomic activities. Water demand and supply in the Thar play an essential role in regulating the socioeconomic activities of the region. Inland water and precipitation aid the movement of water in the Thar Desert. Precipitation in the Thar is governed by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), during which the winds distribute water vapour to regulate precipitation across the region. Therefore, we analyse the water vapour, its sources and its relation with precipitation using satellite measurements and reanalysis data in the Thar during ISM. Like other regions, a clear seasonal cycle of water vapour is observed in the Thar, with very high values (> 45 kg/m²) during ISM and low in winter (< 15 kg/m²). Evapotranspiration and moisture transport have significant effects on the amount of water vapour during ISM. There is a significant increase in water vapour in the troposphere, with high trends at the surface (0.032 g/kg/year) and small at the tropopause (0.00002 g/kg/year). A significant increase in column water vapour is also estimated in the Thar during ISM, with high trends in the eastern and southern areas, at about 0.15-0.35 kg/m²/year. The rise in water vapour in the Thar can be attributed to the increase in evapotranspiration (0.03-0.07 mm/day/year) and water vapour transport (> 0.5 kg/m/s/year) from the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean. The rise in water vapour can lead to an increase in precipitation in the Thar, as it shows significant positive trends (0.05-0.1 mm/day/year) in the eastern areas during ISM. The increase in precipitation and water vapour in the arid Thar Desert can have significant implications for the regional environment and agriculture.