Quantifying future water resource vulnerability in a high-mountain third pole river basin under climate change.

Area of Science:

• Environmental science
• Hydrology
• Climate change studies

Background:

• Assessing water resource vulnerability (WRV) in global mountains is vital for management and development.
• The Third Pole region's high-mountain transboundary river basins have unclear WRV under climate change.

Purpose of the Study:

• To comprehensively assess WRV in the Nujiang-Salween River (NSR) basin, a Third Pole high-mountain river.
• To understand the spatial patterns and future drivers of WRV in this critical region.

Main Methods:

• Applied a framework including sensitivity, exposure, adaptability, hazard, and water stress indices.
• Considered climate change, socio-economics, government effectiveness, natural disasters, and water supply capacity.
• Analyzed WRV across elevation gradients and future timeframes.

Main Results:

• Downstream areas with intensive human activity show significantly higher WRV than mountain regions.
• WRV exhibits an M-shaped pattern with elevation, peaking between 500-1500m in the NSR basin.
• Near-future WRV is influenced by adaptation, water scarcity, and exposure; far-future WRV is primarily driven by climate change.

Conclusions:

• Downstream human activities and elevation significantly impact WRV in the Third Pole.
• Climate change is a key driver of future WRV, underscoring the need for adaptive strategies.
• Findings improve understanding of WRV in high-mountain transboundary basins under global change.