Impact assessment of multiple pressures on ecosystem services with a state and transition model: Application to...

A significant challenge in the integration of ecosystem services into decision-making processes lies in effectively capturing the dynamics of marine socio-ecological systems, including their evolutionary pathways, equilibrium states, and tipping points. This paper explores the evolutionary trajectories of a vital marine ecosystem endemic to the Mediterranean Sea: the Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows, in response to various drivers of change. A state-and-transition model is employed to assess the ecosystem services provided by P. oceanica across different states defined by selected transitions, such as overfishing, fragmentation, pollution, and invasion by non-native species. To apply this model, scientific expertise is combined with field data generated using the Ecosystem-Based Quality Index to evaluate the conservation status of P. oceanica. This integrated approach allows for the representation of the ecosystem services offered by the meadows across different states, leveraging ecological data. The findings highlight the disproportionate impact on provisioning services, particularly sea urchins and commercial fish production, which suffer the most under various stressors. Notably, when these services decline to critical levels, the meadows cease to provide significant benefits. Finally, a synthesized representation is presented, merging ecological insights with monitoring data, offering a framework that is more accessible to stakeholders and decision-makers.