Trends in Avoidable Mortality in Kazakhstan From 2015 to 2021

The health system performance assessment is a challenging process for decision-makers. In case of Kazakhstan's healthcare system, the calculation of avoidable mortality, which has been underutilized to date, could serve as an additional tool to prioritize areas for improvement. Therefore, the aim of the study is to analyse avoidable mortality in Kazakhstan.

The data was retrieved from the Bureau of National Statistics, Kazakhstan. It covers population data by age, mortality rates from disease groups based on the Joint OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)/Eurostat classification of preventable and treatable causes of mortality. The data spans from 2015 to 2021, categorized by gender and 5-year age groups (0, 1-4, 5-9, ..., 70-74). Standardization was performed using the 2015 OECD standard population. We used joinpoint regression analysis to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC).

From 2015 to 2019, the annual percentage change (APC) in avoidable mortality per 100 000 population was -3.8 (-5.7 to -1.8), and from 2019 to 2021 it increased by 17.6 (11.3 to 24.3). Males exhibited higher avoidable mortality rates compared to females. The preventable mortality rate was consistently higher than the treatable mortality. Both preventable and treatable mortality decreased from 2015 to 2019, with preventable mortality reaching 272.17 before rising to 379.23 per 100 000 population in 2021. Between 2015 and 2021, treatable mortality rates increased from 179.3 (176.93-181.67) to 205.45 (203.08-207.81) per 100 000 population.

In Kazakhstan, the leading causes of avoidable mortality were circulatory diseases, respiratory diseases, and cancer. To achieve the goals of universal health coverage (UHC) and improve the overall population health, there is an urgent need to amend the healthcare system and reduce avoidable mortality. While it is important to acknowledge the influence of COVID-19 on these trends, our study's focus on avoidable mortality provides valuable insights that complement the understanding of pandemic-related effects.