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Crop booms as regime shifts.

Victoria Junquera1,2, Maja Schlüter3, Juan Rocha3

  • 1High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.

Royal Society Open Science
|August 5, 2024
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Summary

Crop booms, sudden expansions of new crops, are driven by preconditions and triggers. Their intensity and nonlinearity stem from social, multi-scale feedbacks, offering new management insights.

Keywords:
Laoscomplex systemscrop boomsfrontiersland regime shiftsself-reinforcing feedbacks

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Area of Science:

  • Complex systems theory applied to agricultural expansion.
  • Ecology and agricultural economics of frontier regions.

Background:

  • Crop booms, characterized by sudden, nonlinear expansion, are poorly understood and difficult to manage.
  • Resemblances between crop booms and land regime shifts suggest complex systems dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To provide new insights into crop boom dynamics using complex systems theory.
  • To analyze the occurrence, timing, intensity, and nonlinearity of crop booms.
  • To identify opportunities for management interventions in crop booms.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of qualitative and quantitative data on rubber and banana plantation expansion in northern Laos.
  • Application of complex systems theory to understand boom-bust dynamics.
  • Identification of preconditions, triggers, and self-reinforcing feedbacks driving booms.

Main Results:

  • Preconditions (e.g., previous booms) explain boom occurrence, while triggers (e.g., policy changes) explain timing.
  • Boom intensity and nonlinearity are driven by social, multi-scale, and threshold-dependent feedbacks (e.g., neighborhood effects, imitation, land rush).
  • Crop booms share features with regime shifts and are influenced by frontier dynamics.

Conclusions:

  • Crop booms are regular phenomena with predictable features, driven by internal social feedbacks.
  • A causal-mechanistic explanation for crop booms is proposed, linking them to regime shifts.
  • Management interventions can be strategically timed before, during, and after booms.