Time to Functional Loss as an Endpoint in Huntington's Disease Trials: Enrichment and Sample Size

Clinical trial scenarios can be modeled using data from observational studies, providing critical information for design of real-world trials. The Huntington's Disease Integrated Staging System (HD-ISS) characterizes disease progression over an individual's lifespan and allows for flexibility in the design of trials with the goal of delaying progression. Enrichment methods can be applied to the HD-ISS to identify subgroups requiring smaller estimated sample sizes.

Investigate time to the event of functional decline (HD-ISS Stage 3) as an endpoint for trials in HD and present sample size estimates after enrichment.

We classified individuals from observational studies according to the HD-ISS. We assessed the ability of the prognostic index normed (PIN) and its components to predict time to HD-ISS Stage 3. For enrichment, we formed groups from deciles of the baseline PIN distribution for HD-ISS Stage 2 participants. We selected enrichment subgroups closer to Stage 3 transition and estimated sample sizes, using delay in the transition time as the effect size.

In predicting time to HD-ISS Stage 3, PIN outperforms its components. Survival curves for each PIN decile show that groups with PIN from 1.48 to 2.74 have median time to Stage 3 of approximately 2 years and these are combined to create enrichment subgroups. Sample size estimates are presented by enrichment subgroup.

PIN is predictive of functional decline. A delay of 9 months or more in the transition to Stage 3 for an enriched sample yields feasible sample size estimates, demonstrating that this approach can aid in planning future trials. © 2024 The Author(s). Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.