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Rare and highly destructive wildfires drive human migration in the U.S
Kathryn McConnell1,2, Elizabeth Fussell3,4, Jack DeWaard5,6
1Population Studies and Training Center, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA. kathryn.mcconnell@ubc.ca.
Nature Communications
|August 5, 2024
Summary
Extreme wildfires significantly impact human migration, but only when over 258 structures are destroyed. Most wildfires do not cause substantial population shifts, indicating rare mobility effects primarily linked to severe built environment destruction.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Sociology
- Geography
Background:
- Wildfire impacts on the built environment are escalating due to rising global temperatures.
- Understanding the relationship between wildfire events and human mobility is crucial for disaster preparedness and urban planning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine if and at what destruction threshold wildfires influence human migration patterns.
- To analyze the migration effects of the most destructive wildfires in the contiguous U.S. from 1999 to 2020.
Main Methods:
- Examined migration data in relation to major wildfire events in the contiguous U.S. between 1999 and 2020.
- Focused on the destruction threshold of structures as a key variable in assessing wildfire impact on population mobility.
Main Results:
- Only extreme wildfires, defined as those destroying 258 or more structures, demonstrably influenced human migration patterns.
- The majority of wildfires studied, which were less destructive, did not lead to significant changes in out-migration or in-migration.
- Wildfire's influence on population mobility over the past two decades was infrequent and primarily a consequence of severe built environment damage.
Conclusions:
- Wildfire-induced human mobility shifts are rare and contingent upon extreme levels of destruction to the built environment.
- Future research should consider the specific thresholds of destruction when assessing the broader societal impacts of wildfires.
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