Validation and Comparison of Prognostic Models in Renal Carcinoma in a Tertiary Hospital

Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is the third most frequent urological neoplasia. Proper risk stratification is essential for adequate management. Various calculators are available. This project aims to evaluate the accuracy of the calculators applied to our patients.

We performed a retrospective study of the nephrectomies due to RCC performed from January 2008 to December 2013. We applied the most widely used predictive models (University of California, Los Angeles Integrated Staging System (UISS), Stage, Size, Grade and Necrosis (SSIGN), Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) and International Metastatic RCC Database Consortium (IMDC)) to stratify patients in different risk groups. We evaluated progression-free survival (PFS) or death caused by RCC (cancer-specific survival (CSS)) or other causes (overall survival (OS)).

We analysed 238 patients. The 5-year OS, CSS and PFS were 76%, 85% and 83%, whereas the 10-year OS, CSS and PFS were 47%, 75% and 77%, respectively. The 5-year survival analysis by risk groups according to the prognostic models showed that the PFS was 0% and 20.4% in high- and intermediate-risk metastatic RCC (mRCC). Moreover, the PFS was 90%, 95.2% and 98.9% in localised high-, intermediate- and low-risk RCC according to the UISS (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC): 0.93). The SSIGN model showed a CSS of 99% for the group with the lowest score and 5.3% for the group with the worst prognosis (AUC: 0.91). The OS of mRCC showed medians of 13.25 and 87 months according to MSKCC (AUC: 0.75) and 16, 23 and 85 months according to IMDC (AUC: 0.71) (high risk, intermediate and low).

The validation of the predictive models carried out with our patients showed consistency in many of the results. Risk stratification should be implemented.