Future projection of droughts in Morocco and potential impact on agriculture
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View abstract on PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.Morocco faces increased drought risk due to rising temperatures and decreased precipitation. Future projections show a significant increase in drought severity, impacting water resources and food security.
Area Of Science
- Climate Science
- Hydrology
- Environmental Science
Background
- Morocco is vulnerable to climate change impacts, particularly drought.
- Accurate future drought hazard assessment is crucial for adaptation strategies.
Purpose Of The Study
- To evaluate future drought hazard in Morocco using a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach.
- To project changes in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), aridity, and drought indices (SPEI).
Main Methods
- Constructed an artificial neural network-based MME using successful Climate Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) General Circulation Models (GCMs).
- Projected future changes for precipitation, PET, aridity index, and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) values across different future periods.
- Analyzed spatial drought patterns and severity under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario.
Main Results
- Projected decrease in precipitation and increase in PET, leading to higher aridity risk.
- Future SPEI values indicate a trend towards increased drought severity across Morocco.
- The northern regions show higher drought occurrences, with severity escalating over time.
- Drought severity is projected to significantly increase post-2050 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.
Conclusions
- Future drought conditions in Morocco are expected to worsen significantly.
- Increased drought severity poses substantial risks to water resources, agriculture, and food security.
- The findings underscore the urgent need for climate change adaptation and mitigation measures in Morocco.
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