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Autocratization Spillover: When Electing an Authoritarian Erodes Election Trust across Borders
1Lecturer (Assistant Professor), School of Geography, Politics and Sociology, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
Public Opinion Quarterly
|August 7, 2024
Summary
Neighboring authoritarian election victories can erode domestic election trust by undermining support for democracy and political systems. This study shows spillover effects from Brazil
Area of Science:
- Political Science
- International Relations
- Comparative Politics
Background:
- Election trust literature primarily focuses on domestic factors.
- The current autocratization wave has international dimensions.
- Cross-border autocratization events may impact democratic norms and election trust.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate if an authoritarian electoral success in a neighboring country erodes election trust.
- To examine the spillover effects of the 2018 Brazilian presidential election on election trust in Colombia.
- To identify the mechanisms through which such spillover effects operate.
Main Methods:
- Utilizing the AmericasBarometer survey data from Colombia during the 2018 Brazilian election.
- Employing causal mediation analysis to test the proposed mechanisms.
- Analyzing the impact of Jair Bolsonaro's electoral victory on Colombian citizens' political attitudes.
Main Results:
- Colombian citizens' election trust significantly eroded following Jair Bolsonaro's victory in Brazil.
- The authoritarian's success reduced support for Colombia's domestic political system.
- Principled support for democracy among Colombian citizens decreased.
- Causal mediation analysis confirmed that reduced political system support and principled support for democracy mediate the effect on election trust.
Conclusions:
- Authoritarian electoral successes abroad can negatively impact election trust in neighboring countries.
- External autocratization events are crucial factors influencing domestic election trust.
- The findings highlight the interconnectedness of democratic norms and the impact of cross-border political trends.
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