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The Trump Effect? Right-Wing Populism and Distrust in Voting by Mail in Canada
1York Research Chair and Associate Professor, Department of Sociology, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Public Opinion Quarterly
|August 7, 2024
Summary
Right-wing populism in Canada is linked to lower trust in mail-in ballots, especially among right-leaning individuals. Political media exposure intensifies this effect, mirroring trends seen in the United States.
Area of Science:
- Political Science
- Electoral Behavior
- Public Opinion
Background:
- The "Trump effect" on voting by mail is documented in the US.
- Canadian mail-in voting increased in the last general election.
- Politicization of electoral processes can impact public trust.
Purpose of the Study:
- To examine the association between right-wing populism and trust in mail-in voting among Canadians.
- To test if populist views correlate with decreased trust in mail-in ballots.
- To determine if political media exposure amplifies this association.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of data from the 2021 Canadian Election Study.
- Analysis of data from the Democracy Checkup Survey.
- Statistical examination of populist views, political media exposure, and trust in mail-in voting.
Main Results:
- Canadians with populist views exhibit less trust in mail-in voting.
- This effect is particularly pronounced among right-leaning individuals.
- Higher political media exposure amplifies the negative association between populist views and trust in mail-in voting.
Conclusions:
- Right-wing populism negatively impacts trust in mail-in voting in Canada.
- Political media consumption intensifies the distrust among those with populist views.
- The politicization of mail-in voting has implications for electoral legitimacy beyond the US, including in Canada.
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