Current status and obstacles of narrowing yield gaps of four major crops

Maize, wheat, rice and soybean production are intimately linked to food security. Identifying the key factors affecting crop yields and determining the countries where increased irrigation and nitrogen application most effectively enhance yields are essential steps towards achieving sustainable development goals and ensuring food security. Identifying these areas is crucially dependent on yield gaps. However, the lack of comparability between different regions in current regional-scale yield gap studies stems from varied methodologies. Moreover, global yield gap research, relying on statistical models and regression methods, tends to neglect the crop growth process. In this study, we used a random forest model, based on statistical and meteorological data, to pinpoint the key factors influencing crop yields. Subsequently, using unified yield data from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), derived from crop models simulations, we applied the yield gap method to calculate the potential yield increase for four crops across countries, under conditions of full irrigation and nitrogen application.

Our research finds that nitrogen application is the main factor affecting yields globally, while irrigation plays a crucial role in the major producing countries. The countries with high potential for yield increases are located at the border between Africa and Eurasia. The global average yield of the four major crops increased 13.7-29.8% under full irrigation, 2.9-39.1% under full nitrogen application and 29.4-97.8% under both conditions.

This study provides crucial insights into global crop yield changes and their determinants, which are highly important for global sustainable agriculture and food security efforts. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.