Ensemble of machine learning techniques to predict survival in kidney transplant recipients

Kidney transplant recipients face a high cardiovascular risk, which is a leading cause of death in this patient group. This article proposes the application of clustering techniques and feature selection to predict the survival outcomes of kidney transplant recipients based on machine learning techniques and mainstream statistical methods. First, feature selection techniques (Boruta, Random Survival Forest and Elastic Net) are used to detect the most relevant variables. Subsequently, each set of variables obtained by each feature selection technique is used as input for the clustering algorithms used (Consensus Clustering, Self-Organizing Map and Agglomerative Clustering) to determine which combination of feature selection, clustering algorithm and number of clusters maximizes intercluster variability. Next, the mechanism called False Clustering Discovery Reduction is applied to obtain the minimum number of statistically differentiable populations after applying a control metric. This metric is based on a variance test to confirm that reducing the number of clusters does not generate significant losses in the heterogeneity obtained. This approach was applied to the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network medical dataset (n = 11,332). The combination of Random Survival Forest and consensus clustering yielded the optimal result of 4 clusters starting from 8 initial ones. Finally, for each population, Kaplan-Meier survival curves are generated to predict the survival of new patients based on the predictions of the XGBoost classifier, with an overall multi-class AUC of 98.11%.