Research on accident early warning of metallurgical enterprises based on grey DEMATEL/ISM and Bayesian network

To clarify the complex relationship between the factors causing safety accidents in metallurgical enterprises and predict the risk of accidents in enterprises, a correlation analysis model of the factors causing safety accidents in metallurgical enterprises based on grey Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory/Interpretative Structural Modeling (DEMATEL/ISM) was established, and a Bayesian network early warning model was constructed on this basis. The relationship and action path of accident-causing factors in metallurgical enterprises were clarified. The factors were hierarchically divided and a multi-layer hierarchical structure model was established to obtain the neighboring cause, transitional cause, and essential cause of the accident. The results showed that the employee violation rate, the hazardous substances reserves, the toxic gas and dust pollution control compliance rate, the pass rate for equipment maintenance, and the qualification rate of special equipment were the neighboring causes of the accident. The perfection of the safety production management system was the essential cause. The Bayesian network early warning model was applied to the Fuxin Jiuxing Titanium work site. The expected risk probability of an accident was 17.9%, which was in a comparatively safe state (State2). The results obtained by the Bayesian model are consistent with those obtained by AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, which proved the accuracy of the early warning model. The Bayesian model can give the risk probability value of the accident and the risk probability value of the accident cause factors at the same time, and include the causal relationship and conditional correlation relationship among the indicator variables in the reasoning process, which can provide targeted technical support for the construction of the emergency system of risk classification management and control.