Mechanisms for carbon stock driving and scenario modeling in typical mountainous watersheds of northeastern China

Watershed ecosystems play a pivotal role in maintaining the global carbon cycle and reducing global warming by serving as vital carbon reservoirs for sustainable ecosystem management. In this study, we based on the "quantity-mechanism-scenario" frameworks, integrate the MCE-CA-Markov and InVEST models to evaluate the spatiotemporal variations of carbon stocks in mid- to high-latitude alpine watersheds in China under historical and future climate scenarios. Additionally, the study employs the Geographic Detector model to explore the driving mechanisms influencing the carbon storage capacity of watershed ecosystems. The results showed that the carbon stock of the watershed increased by about 15.9 Tg from 1980 to 2020. Fractional Vegetation Cover (FVC), Digital Elevation Model (DEM), and Mean Annual Temperature (MAT) had the strongest explanatory power for carbon stocks. Under different climate scenarios, it was found that the SSP2-4.5 scenario had a significant rise in carbon stock from 2020 to 2050, roughly 24.1 Tg. This increase was primarily observed in the southeastern region of the watersheds, with forest and grassland effectively protected. Conversely, according to the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the carbon stock would decrease by about 50.53 Tg with the expansion of cultivated and construction land in the watershed's southwest part. Therefore, given the vulnerability of mid- to high-latitude mountain watersheds, global warming trends continue to pose a greater threat to carbon sequestration in watersheds. Our findings carry important implications for tackling potential ecological threats in mid- to high-latitude watersheds in the Northern Hemisphere and assisting policymakers in creating carbon sequestration plans, as well as for reducing climate change.