Nomogram for Predicting Efficacy and Prognosis After Chemotherapy for Advanced NSCLC

Area of Science:

• Oncology
• Medical Diagnostics

Background:

• Improving overall survival (OS) in Stage III-IV non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients post-chemotherapy remains a challenge.
• Numerous risk factors and therapies exist, but precise prognostic tools are needed.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the OS of Stage III-IV NSCLC patients treated with chemotherapy.
• To identify key predictive factors for chemotherapy response and survival.

Main Methods:

• Prospective data collection from 321 NSCLC patients (January 2018 - December 2023).
• Measurement of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and seven autoantibodies.
• Multifactor Cox regression and ROC curve analysis to identify risk factors and build a nomogram; performance assessed via concordance index and calibration plots.

Main Results:

• NLR, SOX2, GBU4-5, and MAGEA1 were significant predictors of chemotherapy therapeutic effect.
• A nomogram was constructed using these factors to predict 1, 3, and 5-year survival.
• The nomogram achieved an AUC of 0.762 at 3 years with good calibration and a bootstrapped-concordance index of 0.762.

Conclusions:

• The developed nomogram is a valuable tool for accurately predicting overall survival in NSCLC patients receiving chemotherapy.
• This prognostic model can aid in clinical decision-making and patient management.