Analysis of harsh braking and harsh acceleration occurrence via explainable imbalanced machine learning using...

Harsh driving events such as harsh brakings (HBs) and harsh accelerations (HAs) are promising Surrogate Safety Measures, already extensively utilised in road safety research. However, their occurrence relative to normal driving conditions has not been the explicit target of research, as they are typically used as inputs for crash prediction. The present study addresses this research gap by investigating factors influencing HB and HA occurrence using real-time naturalistic driving telematics data recorded from smartphones, traffic data and road geometry & network characteristics data. These multisource data were matched in order to capture the specific circumstances under which HBs and HAs occur. The utilized telematics dataset included trips from 314 anonymous drivers in an urban arterial of Athens, Greece. Subsequently, Synthetic Minority Oversampling TEchnique (SMOTE) was applied due to class imbalance and then binary classification was conducted to detect factors leading to HB and HA occurrence. Imbalanced Machine Learning (ML) XGBoost algorithms predicted over 75% of HBs and over 84% of HAs for the test dataset, indicating suitability for real-time monitoring. The algorithms were also augmented with SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values, aiming to increase outcome explainability. Results reveal strong nonlinear effects on harsh event occurrence, with individual speed and traffic flow parameters showing the highest influence, followed by exposure parameters such as segment length and pass count. Network characteristics such as number of lanes, and speed limit had limited influence on HA and HB occurrence, as did behaviors such as mobile phone engagement and speeding.