Integrated simulation-surrogate-optimization modeling framework for multiple tradeoffs among socioeconomic and...

Integrated reservoir water quantity and quality management is significant for water supply security and river ecosystem health. However, the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of water quality and the nonuniform response of multiple indicators to operation changes make it difficult to determine optimal operation schedules. This study proposes a coupled simulation-surrogate-optimization modeling approach for compromising multiple water quantity and quality targets in reservoir operations. The Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) was used to simulate spatiotemporal reservoir water quality dynamics. Subsequently, an ecological damage assessment method was established, accounting for the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of multiple water quality indicators and the nonlinear relationship between the water quality deterioration and ecological damage. To quickly simulate the ecological damage, a surrogate model was developed using the nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX). Finally, the surrogate model was integrated into a reservoir operation optimization model for compromising socioeconomic and ecological targets. By applying the methods to China's Danjiangkou Reservoir as a case, it was shown that more even nutrient distribution in the reservoir increased water eutrophication area while reducing concentration peak values, which helped decrease the ecological damage. Operation changes could lead to opposite effects on in-reservoir and downstream ecological targets, increasing operation optimization complexity. Both ecological and socioeconomic benefits significantly increased (by 9.4%-16.4%) during dry years under the optimized operation scheme, implying that synergies were obtained. This study offers implications and a management tool for reservoir operations to address the multiple tradeoffs among socioeconomic and ecological benefits.