Development of a short-term prognostic model for anti-N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor encephalitis in Chinese patients

Recognizing the predictors of poor short-term prognosis after first-line immunotherapy in patients with anti-N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (anti-NMDAR) encephalitis is essential for individualized treatment strategy. The objective of this study was to ascertain the factors that forecast short-term prognosis in patients with anti-NMDAR encephalitis, develop a prognostic prediction model, and authenticate its efficacy in an external validation cohort. Further, all patients were followed-up long-term to assess the factors of long-term outcome and relapses.

A prospective enrollment of patients diagnosed with anti-NMDAR encephalitis was conducted across five clinical centers in China from June 2014 to Mar 2022. The enrolled patients were divided into the derivation and validation sets based on enrollment time. The short-term prognostic model was visualized using a nomogram. Further, all patients were followed-up long-term to assess the factors of long-term outcome.

This study found that poor short-term prognosis was a risk factor for poor long-term outcome (6-month prognosis, OR 29.792, 95%CI 6.507-136.398, p < 0.001; 12-month prognosis, OR 15.756, 95%CI 3.384-73.075, p < 0.001; 24-month prognosis, OR 5.500, 95%CI 1.045-28.955, p = 0.044). Abnormal behavior or cognitive dysfunction (OR 8.57, 95%CI 1.48-49.79, p = 0.017), consciousness impairment (OR19.32, 95%CI 3.03-123.09, p = 0.002), autonomic dysfunction or central hypoventilation (OR 5.66, 95%CI 1.25-25.75, p = 0.025), CSF pleocytosis (OR 4.33, 95%CI 1.48-12.65, p = 0.007), abnormal EEG (OR 5.48, 95% CI 1.09-27.54, p = 0.039) were independent predictors for a poor short-term prognosis after first-line immunotherapy. A nomogram that incorporated those factors showed good discrimination and calibration abilities. The area under the curve (AUC) for the prognostic model were 0.866 (95%CI: 0.798-0.934) with a sensitivity of 0.761 and specificity of 0.869.

We established and validated a prognostic model that can provide individual prediction of short-term prognosis after first-line immunotherapy for patients with anti-NMDAR encephalitis. This practical prognostic model may help neurologists to predict the short-term prognosis early and potentially assist in adjusting appropriate treatment timely.