High-intensity rainfall following drought triggers extreme nutrient concentrations in a small agricultural catchment

The profound influence of climate change on the hydrological cycle raises concerns about its potential impacts on water quality, particularly in agricultural catchments. Here, we analysed 200 storm events monitored for nitrate and total phosphorus (TP) at sub-hourly intervals from 2016 to 2023 in the Kervidy-Naizin catchment (north-western France). Using Extreme Value theory, we identified storm events with extreme concentrations and compared their hydroclimatic characteristics to those of non-extreme events. We hypothesised that extreme concentration events occurred under extreme hydroclimatic conditions, which are projected to become more frequent in the future. The extreme events identified showed dilution patterns for nitrate, with concentrations decreasing by up to 41 %, and accretion patterns for TP, with concentrations increasing by up to 1400 % compared to non-extreme events. Hydroclimatic conditions during extreme concentration events were characterised by high rainfall intensities and low antecedent discharge, but no particular conditions for mean discharge. During non-extreme events, nitrate concentration-discharge relationships exhibited primarily clockwise hysteresis, whereas TP displayed an equal mix of clockwise and anticlockwise loops. In contrast, extreme events showed more anticlockwise hysteresis for nitrate and weak hysteresis for TP. We interpreted these dynamics and their hydroclimatic controls as the result of infiltration-excess overland flow diluting nitrate-rich groundwater and exporting large amounts of TP during intensive rainfall events following droughts, while groundwater fluctuations in the riparian zone and streambed remobilization control nutrient exports during non-extreme events. Given the increasing frequency and intensity of hydroclimatic extremes, such retrospective analyses can provide valuable insights into future nutrient dynamics in streams draining agricultural catchments.