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Bayesian multistate models for measuring invasive carp movement and evaluating telemetry array performance.

Jessica C Stanton1, Marybeth K Brey1, Alison A Coulter2

  • 1Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, United States Geological Survey, La Crosse, WI, United States of America.

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Invasive carp movement in the Illinois River is mostly contained within river pools. Upstream movements are rare, but telemetry monitoring is limited in key areas.

Keywords:
Acoustic TelemetryBighead CarpBigheaded CarpsInvasive CarpsMovementSilver Carp

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Invasive Species Management
  • Aquatic Ecology

Background:

  • Invasive carp pose a significant threat to the Laurentian Great Lakes ecosystem.
  • Understanding invasive species movement is crucial for effective control strategies.
  • The Illinois and Des Plaines Rivers are critical management zones for invasive carp.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate movement patterns of silver and bighead carp in the Illinois and Des Plaines Rivers.
  • To characterize upstream and downstream movement rates between river pools.
  • To evaluate the efficacy of existing telemetry infrastructure for monitoring carp.

Main Methods:

  • Bayesian multistate modeling
  • Acoustic telemetry
  • Analysis of movement data for silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) and bighead carp (H. nobilis)

Main Results:

  • Most invasive carp remained within their river pools monthly (76.2% silver, 75.5% bighead).
  • Downstream movements were less common (14.2% silver, 13.9% bighead).
  • Upstream movements were least likely (6.7% silver, 7.9% bighead), with highest probability from downstream pools, yet detection was poor.

Conclusions:

  • Invasive carp movement is largely pool-restricted, but upstream dispersal from recruitment areas is possible.
  • Current telemetry infrastructure has limitations in detecting carp movements in critical downstream areas.
  • Recommendations are provided to improve monitoring tool placement and usage for better understanding of carp behavior.