Predicting undetected native vascular plant diversity at a global scale

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Biodiversity Science
• Biogeography

Background:

• Vascular plants are crucial to terrestrial ecosystems, but their global distributions are not fully mapped.
• Incomplete distribution data limits our understanding of biodiversity patterns and conservation needs.

Purpose of the Study:

• To create a comprehensive global database of vascular plant distributions.
• To identify and analyze patterns of plant diversity, endemism, and phylogenetic diversity.
• To assess the conservation status of identified biodiversity hotspots.

Main Methods:

• Integrated species distribution models (SDMs) with dispersal ability and habitat data.
• Predicted native range maps for over 200,000 vascular plant species.
• Utilized random forest models for global extrapolation and hotspot identification.

Main Results:

• Uncovered unique patterns of vascular plant diversity, endemism, and phylogenetic diversity.
• Identified significant biodiversity hotspots, particularly in underdocumented regions.
• Revealed a strong latitudinal diversity gradient, supporting the equatorial diversity theory.
• Discovered "cryptic hotspots" not captured by previous estimations.
• Found that 60% of extrapolated plant hotspots are outside protected areas.

Conclusions:

• The study provides detailed, species-level distribution maps for global biodiversity assessment.
• Identified vulnerable, unprotected biodiversity hotspots requiring urgent conservation efforts.
• Highlighted the importance of considering unique species attributes for conservation prioritization.