Obesity is associated with incident chronic kidney disease in individuals with normal renal function

Obesity has known to be a modifiable risk factor associated with worse outcomes in chronic kidney disease (CKD), but few studies have examined the impact of obesity on CKD incidence in the general population. The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) as predictors of incident CKD and to evaluate the impact of weight reduction on CKD prevention.

A total of 2,711 participants from a community-based cohort with normal renal function were prospectively analyzed. Among participants with obesity, we analyzed the change in WHR to evaluate the association of obesity reduction with CKD development.

During a mean follow-up of 11.03 ± 4.22 years, incident CKD occurred in 190 (7.0%) participants. In the fully adjusted multivariable Cox proportional hazard models, the risk of incident CKD increased with higher BMI (hazard ratio, 1.06; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.11; p = 0.033) and higher WHR (hazard ratio, 1.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.66; p = 0.009). In the Kaplan-Meier analysis, cumulative adverse renal events were significantly more common in the maintained obesity group than in the reduced obesity group (p = 0.001).

Both higher BMI and WHR were associated with development of CKD, but the magnitude of the effect of WHR was higher than that of BMI. Moreover, reducing obesity would be beneficial for renal prognosis.