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PARCCS: A Machine Learning Risk-Prediction Model for Acute Peripartum Cardiovascular Complications During Delivery
Salman Zahid1, Shikha Jha2, Gurleen Kaur3
1Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Knight Cardiovascular Institute, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, Oregon, USA.
Background:
Maternal mortality in the United States remains high, with cardiovascular (CV) complications being a leading cause.
Objectives:
The purpose of this paper was to develop the PARCCS (Prediction of Acute Risk for Cardiovascular Complications in the Peripartum Period Score) for acute CV complications during delivery.
Methods:
Data from the National Inpatient Sample (2016-2020) and International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision codes to identify delivery admissions were used. Acute CV/renal complications were defined as a composite of pre-eclampsia/eclampsia, peripartum cardiomyopathy, renal complications, venous thromboembolism, arrhythmias, and pulmonary edema. A risk prediction model, PARCCS, was developed using machine learning consisting of 14 variables and scored out of 100 points.
Results:
Of the 2,371,661 pregnant patients analyzed, 7.0% had acute CV complications during delivery hospitalization. Patients with CV complications had a higher prevalence of comorbidities and were more likely to be of Black race and lower income. The PARCCS variables included electrolyte imbalances (13 points [p]), age (3p for age <20 years), cesarean delivery (4p), obesity (5p), pre-existing heart failure (28p), multiple gestations (4p), Black race (2p), gestational hypertension (3p), low income (1p), gestational diabetes (2p), chronic diabetes (6p), prior stroke (22p), coagulopathy (5p), and nonelective admission (2p). Using the validation set, the performance of the model was evaluated with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.68 and a 95% CI of 0.67 to 0.68.
Conclusions:
PARCCS has the potential to be an important tool for identifying pregnant individuals at risk of acute peripartum CV complications at the time of delivery. Future studies should further validate this score and determine whether it can improve patient outcomes.
