Reduced Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases after Bariatric Surgery Based on the New PREVENT Equations

We applied the novel Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease EVENTs (PREVENT) equations to evaluate cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) health and estimated CVD risk, including heart failure (HF), after bariatric surgery.

Among 7804 patients (20-79 years) undergoing bariatric surgery at Vanderbilt University Medical Center during 1999-2022, CVD risk factors at pre-surgery, 1-year, and 2-year post-surgery were extracted from electronic health records. The 10- and 30-year risks of total CVD, atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD), coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and HF were estimated for patients without a history of CVD or its subtypes at each time point, using the social deprivation index-enhanced PREVENT equations. Paired t-tests or McNemar tests were used to compare pre- with post-surgery CKM health and CVD risk. Two-sample t-tests were used to compare CVD risk reduction between patient subgroups defined by age, sex, race, operation type, weight loss, and history of diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia.

CKM health was significantly improved after surgery with lower systolic blood pressure, non-high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL), and diabetes prevalence, but higher HDL and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). The 10-year total CVD risk decreased from 6.51% at pre-surgery to 4.81% and 5.08% at 1- and 2-year post-surgery (relative reduction: 25.9% and 16.8%), respectively. Significant risk reductions were seen for all CVD subtypes (i.e., ASCVD, CHD, stroke, and HF), with the largest reduction for HF (relative reduction: 55.7% and 44.8% at 1- and 2-year post-surgery, respectively). Younger age, White race, >30% weight loss, diabetes history, and no dyslipidemia history were associated with greater HF risk reductions. Similar results were found for the 30-year risk estimates.

Bariatric surgery significantly improves CKM health and reduces estimated CVD risk, particularly HF, by 45-56% within 1-2 years post-surgery. HF risk reduction may vary by patient's demographics, weight loss, and disease history, which warrants further research.