The Future Needs of External Beam Radiotherapy in Portugal Until 2040

Area of Science:

• Oncology
• Radiotherapy
• Health Economics

Background:

• External beam radiotherapy (EBRT) is vital for cancer treatment but faces global infrastructure and investment shortages.
• These deficits compromise cancer patient outcomes, highlighting the need for strategic planning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify the future demand for EBRT in Portugal up to 2040.
• To estimate the required infrastructure and personnel to meet projected needs.

Main Methods:

• Utilized Global Cancer Observatory data for 2040 cancer case estimates in Portugal.
• Calculated optimal EBRT courses based on established guidelines (IAEA, ESTRO).
• Determined necessary EBRT machines (MV units) and staffing levels (radiation oncologists, medical physicists, therapists).

Main Results:

• Projected 18% increase in optimal EBRT courses by 2040, totaling approximately 34,000.
• Estimated need for 18-30 new EBRT machines/MV units.
• Required staffing includes 28-46 radiation oncologists, 22-36 medical physicists, and 61-102 radiation therapists.

Conclusions:

• Portugal faces a significant deficit in EBRT infrastructure.
• Addressing this requires policy reform and investment to ensure equitable access to radiotherapy.