Comprehensive multimodal deep learning survival prediction enabled by a transformer architecture: A multicenter study...

This research aims to improve glioblastoma survival prediction by integrating MR images, clinical, and molecular-pathologic data in a transformer-based deep learning model, addressing data heterogeneity and performance generalizability.

We propose and evaluate a transformer-based nonlinear and nonproportional survival prediction model. The model employs self-supervised learning techniques to effectively encode the high-dimensional MRI input for integration with nonimaging data using cross-attention. To demonstrate model generalizability, the model is assessed with the time-dependent concordance index (Cdt) in 2 training setups using 3 independent public test sets: UPenn-GBM, UCSF-PDGM, and Rio Hortega University Hospital (RHUH)-GBM, each comprising 378, 366, and 36 cases, respectively.

The proposed transformer model achieved a promising performance for imaging as well as nonimaging data, effectively integrating both modalities for enhanced performance (UCSF-PDGM test-set, imaging Cdt 0.578, multimodal Cdt 0.672) while outperforming state-of-the-art late-fusion 3D-CNN-based models. Consistent performance was observed across the 3 independent multicenter test sets with Cdt values of 0.707 (UPenn-GBM, internal test set), 0.672 (UCSF-PDGM, first external test set), and 0.618 (RHUH-GBM, second external test set). The model achieved significant discrimination between patients with favorable and unfavorable survival for all 3 datasets (log-rank P 1.9 × 10^-8, 9.7 × 10^-3, and 1.2 × 10^-2). Comparable results were obtained in the second setup using UCSF-PDGM for training/internal testing and UPenn-GBM and RHUH-GBM for external testing (Cdt 0.670, 0.638, and 0.621).

The proposed transformer-based survival prediction model integrates complementary information from diverse input modalities, contributing to improved glioblastoma survival prediction compared to state-of-the-art methods. Consistent performance was observed across institutions supporting model generalizability.